EMGE Paper and Pulp Industry Outlook: 2026
November 11th 2025
The Paper and Pulp Industry includes the manufacture of Paper and Paper Products, such as Printing and Writing Paper, Packaging and Tissue, primarily from Wood Pulp and Recycled Waste Paper. This industry remains a profoundly dynamic marketplace, influenced by ongoing global economic changes, legislative shifts and disruptive geopolitical forces.
Our EMGE analysts keep this page updated regularly with news and commentary as changes develop in the industry. For more in-depth information on the Pulp and Paper industry, we have the following reports available to purchase:
Market Reports on the Paper Industry
2026: Key Forecasts and Market Insights
- Renewed Volatility from Geopolitics: Following the period of stabilisation hoped for in 2025, geopolitical tensions and the continuing impact of mill closures are expected to inject fresh market volatility into 2026. This environment will necessitate highly adaptable supply chain strategies
- Packaging and Tissue Continues to Drive Growth: Packaging grades (Cartonboard, Containerboard and Kraft Papers) are expected to sustain their positive performance, fuelled by persistent e-commerce demand and plastic substitution.
- Structural Declines and Diversification in Graphic Paper: Structural declines in traditional Graphic Paper grades will continue. We anticipate further industry consolidation in 2026, with European and American mills increasing efforts to diversify or fully convert production capacity to packaging or specialty papers to meet new demand challenges.
- Regulatory Impact on Wood Products: The introduction of regulations, such as the EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR), will increasingly influence material sourcing and compliance costs throughout 2026, impacting price stability.
- Tariff Uncertainty: Discussions and threats of tariffs affecting paper and wood-based products remain a critical factor that could alter global trade flows and regional pricing landscapes dramatically in 2026.
- Paper & Board Sector: After a demand recovery across all Paper & Board sectors in 2024, following a weak-destocking in 2023, 2025 has seen disappointing performance. This sector is predicted to stabilise somewhat in 2026, with more “normal” rates of growth.
- Graphic Paper Decline: Structural declines in Graphic Paper are expected to continue.
- Packaging and Tissue Sector Growth: In Packaging and Tissue, stronger performance is expected, though with a continued bumpy ride in the short term, due to ongoing economic uncertainties and new legislation.
- Industry Consolidation: This continues in all sectors and for some Graphic Paper grades, the lack of mills and choice remains a worry for buyers.
- Mill Operating Rates: Graphic Paper mill operating rates will remain low in historical terms, as mills try to keep up with falling demand.
- Supply Chain Squeeze: Paper merchants, printers and publishers remain squeezed by tight margins and falling circulation.
- European and North American Paper Mills: This area has seen a number of mills closing or converting Graphic Paper capacity to meet new falling demand challenges.
- China Demand Trend: China bucks the global Graphic Paper demand trend with some growth in Uncoated Woodfree (UWF) demand, alongside strong packaging and tissue demand trends …
- Chinese Capacity Threat: … but waves of new Chinese paper and board capacity threaten to put global capacity, operating rates and pricing at risk.
Expected Paper Price Trends in 2026
Paper prices in 2026 will be defined by a delicate balance between fluctuating global demand, supply-side constraints and production costs.
Paper Price Drivers: Key Factors Influencing the Cost of Pulp and Paper
While the factors influencing paper prices are numerous, several will exert disproportionate pressure throughout 2026:
- Input Costs: Energy, Pulp, and Raw Materials
These continue to be dictated by external forces, specifically the stability of the global energy market and pulp availability. Geopolitical events create a major knock-on effect, increasing the volatility of both the essential energy required for manufacturing and the supply of core raw materials. - Geopolitics, Trade Policy & Tariffs
The imposition or even the discussion of new import duties and tariffs can instantly affect pricing and create demand uncertainty, forcing buyers to quickly adjust purchasing strategies. This disruption fundamentally alters supply chain stability, forcing rapid and sometimes irrational purchasing and pricing shifts that perpetuate the cycle of market turbulence. - Global Capacity & Supply-Side Constraints
Mill closures and producers shifting their focus to making more profitable products, rather than Newsprint or Printing and Writing Paper, significantly reduces available capacity in certain sectors. Supply reduction has the knock-on effect of creating both market anxiety and lowering competition. This allows the remaining companies to gain greater control over pricing and raise costs, even when end-user demand is only moderate. - Sustainability & Regulation
Consumer demand and tightening environmental regulations continue to push the industry toward greater reliance on sustainable sourcing practices. This necessary transition often requires investment in new technologies, impacting cost structures and the cost of labour. - Macroeconomics & Currency Fluctuations
The overall health of the global economy, inflation rates, and interest rate decisions directly influence market demand for paper and paper products. Furthermore, currency fluctuations—such as a strong US dollar—can put severe price pressure on European and Asian mills, affecting their competitive export prices and creating regional imbalances.
Sector Spotlight
Tissue Paper & Kraft Packaging Papers: Industry Growth Areas 2026
Several key areas within the industry are experiencing and are expected to continue to experience growth:
- Tissue Paper Production: Growth has been fuelled by a variety of factors including an increasing global awareness of hygiene and personal care, a trend accelerated by recent health concerns. Rising disposable incomes, particularly in emerging economies and environmental and commercial changes have also contributed to this growth.
- Kraft Packaging Papers: Presently experiencing a robust boom driven by both the e-commerce surge and sustainability mandates. As both governments and consumers push for alternatives to single-use plastics, the demand for strong, recyclable, and biodegradable paper-based packaging, such as kraft liners for corrugated boxes, grocery bags, and premium retail packaging, continues to accelerate.
Market Intelligence Reports: In 2026, EMGE will be publishing global Tissue market forecasts and market intelligence on the Kraft Packaging Paper market. To receive an email alert when these are available, please contact EMGE.
Archive: Previous Years’ Outlooks
The Paper and Pulp industry has faced continuous volatility in recent years, from the initial impact of the COVID-19 pandemic to supply chain disruptions and the energy crisis. Reviewing past forecasts provides essential context for current market dynamics.
Find the complete report and detailed analysis from the previous year here:
EMGE Paper Market Intelligence Reports
As leading consultants to the global paper industry, our market intelligence reports are an essential resource for any organisation impacted by the fluctuations in the paper and pulp market. These comprehensive analyses are designed to help your team navigate complex challenges and optimise decision-making to maintain stability and profitability for your business. Our full paper market reports catalogue can be found here.
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Paper Pricing
Our latest Paper Price Forecast can be found here. An invaluable tool for professionals in publishing and printing industries.
Woodfree Paper Industry
This report covers Europe’s Woodfree Paper Market for various coated & uncoated paper grades.
Graphic Paper Market
Our latest EMGE forecast report giving detailed analysis of the World Graphic Papers market industry.