North American Newsprint Market: Capacity Closures and 2026 Outlook

23rd January 2026

The start of 2026 has brought significant shifts to the paper industry. While global geopolitical noise continues to dominate the headlines, a look at recent industry statistics reveals a dramatic tightening of the North American newsprint market.

Recent announcements from major players like Thunder Bay and F.F. Soucy have signalled a rapid reduction in production capacity. As we analyse the data from the start of this year, it is clear that the landscape for newsprint and uncoated mechanical (UM) specialties is changing faster than many anticipated.

Major Mill Closures: Thunder Bay and F.F. Soucy

The industry recently absorbed the news that Thunder Bay will close its paper machine in Canada during Q1 2026. This move transitions the facility to focus exclusively on pulp and hydro. This closure follows close behind the exit of F.F. Soucy.

Together, these two events remove approximately half a million tonnes of newsprint and UM capacity from the market. When you factor in the ongoing temporary shutdown at Kruger’s Cornerbrook mill (scheduled to restart in February 2026), the supply side looks increasingly lean.

‘The industry is set for further consolidation in 2026 as mills struggle to run at financial break-even points, producers are expected to convert or close machines to balance supply with demand and protect their profits.’

Iwan Le Moine, Lead Paper Consultant at EMGE

Analysing North American Newsprint Demand

To understand the impact of these closures, we must look at the current demand and operating rates. Using a three-month moving average (3mma) provides a clearer picture by smoothing out monthly fluctuations. For instance, while August 2025 saw a sharp -32% drop in demand, the 3mma sat at a more representative -22%. That’s a big gap, between nearly one third vs just over a fifth!

Current Market Snapshot (3mma):

Paper Grade	Demand Growth (3mma)	Year-to-Date (YTD)	Operating Rate
Newsprint	-16%	-16%	68%
Uncoated Mechanical	-13%	-7%	70%

North American Newsprint: Capacity Impact and Market Share

The table below outlines the specific mills affected by recent closures and ongoing uncertainty. These figures highlight the significant percentage of North American (NA) capacity currently being removed or at risk.

Mill / Facility	Status	Capacity (Tonnes)	% Share of 2025 NA News Capacity
Thunder Bay	Closing (Q1 2026)	230,000–240,000t (mainly Standard Newsprint)	10%
F.F. Soucy (White Birch)	Closed	265,000t*	8%
Kruger Cornerbrook	Currently Out	240,000t	11%
Domtar Gatineau	Uncertain (Near-term)	190,000t	8%
Kap Paper	Uncertain (Near-term)	210,000t**	7%

*F.F. Soucy’s PM1 includes 85kt of UM Specialties.
**Kap Paper’s PM4 includes 40kt of UM Specialties

With question marks surrounding the medium-term viability of Domtar’s Gatineau mill, following the closure of its Grenada (US) mill, the industry is watching closely for further consolidation.

EMGE Forecast: What to Expect in 2026

In our previous World Graphic Papers report, we anticipated a demand drop and included some “unspecified” closures. However, the reality has even outpaced our warnings. Demand and production have fallen more steeply than forecasted.

Operating Rate Scenarios for 2026:

If the industry remains on its current path with only the Soucy and Thunder Bay closures, we expect an operating rate of 83%. However, if further closures occur at Gatineau or Kap Paper, we could see theoretical operating rates jump to 93% or even 104%, signalling a severely under-supplied market.

These are just theoretical scenarios for this year, but you can see how dramatically the North American newsprint landscape could change again, should there be any further announcements beyond the existing machine closures. With nearly 90% of all newsprint capacity in North America now gone since its peak in 1997, each machine has the potential to change the newsprint landscape dramatically.

Market Sentiment and Pricing

This outlook comes after a significant price increase for newsprint, which rose by about +US$40/t (depending on mill and buyer) between November and January. In the short term, many in the industry are worried about supply. With several major mills closing and Cornerbrook still offline, there is less paper available for buyers.

However, this situation could change quickly. While the news is currently full of mill closures – giving producers more power over prices – Kruger is planning to restart its Newfoundland mill soon. When that mill comes back online, there will be more supply at a time when global demand is still falling sharply. For now, the mills have the upper hand, but the balance of the market remains very delicate as we head further into 2026.

Newsprint consumption & Graphic paper market

We provide deep-dive analysis into global newsprint consumption and the broader graphic paper market in our monthly newsprint report.

For expert advice and help with a tailored strategy, explore our paper market consulting.

Industry Insights: Understanding the Data

To help our readers navigate the complexities of the paper market, here is a brief guide to the metrics used in this report:

3MMA (Three-Month Moving Average):
Individual months can be “noisy” due to holiday shutdowns or one-off large orders. We use a 3MMA to smooth out these fluctuations, providing a clearer view of the actual market trend rather than a single-month snapshot.
Operating Rates:
This percentage represents how much of the industry’s total “installed capacity” is actually in use. High operating rates (90%+) usually lead to price increases and tight supply, while low rates (below 80%) often drive mill restructuring as producers look to cut costs and improve profitability.